PM Will Not Survive

http://melvin-mah.blogspot.com

I've read several news pieces and reports and it points to one direction - Abdullah Badawi might only survive for at least a month or so.

Right now, he has to fight at two fronts - on the inside and the outside. There will be a high probability of him fighting inside first before dealing with the outside. Whatever the case is, it will be a lose-lose situation for him. As of now, last week, he was trying hard to postpone the UMNO elections to 2009 with the excuse of money, mostly used up for the general elections. But then, Ku Li will attempt to bring forth an EGM on May 11. April 4 2008 is the day where we see whether there's EGM or no EGM. Abdullah's camp will not rest to see that the EGM doesn't come and they will do all they can to postpone until 2009. To them, it's saving Dollah Badawi from wipe out.

As the saying goes, like lessons from Napoleon and Hitler, you should not fight two fronts at the same time. Whenever they fight two fronts at one time, it ended in disastrously. For instance, Napoleon was decimated during the 1812 war with the Russians, with his other front fighting against the English. Hitler's war machine was also decimated in World War 2 when he tried capturing Russia while fighting Western Europe. Both during winter.

On the outer front, they knew that Anwar Ibrahim was trying to amass MPs from the Borneo front to come over to the opposition. As of last week, the count stands at 38 (unsure whether Anwar himself is counted or not). When the 38 are added in, the current Cabinet will cease to exist, and the King will decide who among the majority is best lead the government. In that case, it could be 121-102. The exterior attack will be depending on: the first move from Sarawak and the outcome on April 4 2008.

Given of how bad things are in the BN front, they could be finished if it is not done by end April.

Whatever the case is, the first matter to be discussed in Parliament on May 7 2008 (first session) would be of course the no-confidence motion against Abdullah Badawi. Methods of both men are very in contrast. Anwar tries to amass MPs to come to the fold, while Ku Li tries to get 130 divisions or more to support him and his move to hold an EGM. From the information, it seems that as of now, Anwar is slightly ahead now, given of the complexity of obstacles. It will be a photo-finish, winning by the nose.